A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
